Research on Innovation Strategy of Government Organization

and Public Service Delivery System for De-population Era:

The South Korea and the U.S case

Hyewon Jung

Contents

Summary (Korean)	1

Introduction	11

Literature review	15

Key concept	15

Depopulation	15

Aging society	18

Low birthrate	18

Working Age Population	19

Shrinking city	21

Rural decline	22

Key concept to the U.S. and South Korean Case	23

Depopulation	23

The U.S case	23

The South Korea case	24

Aging society	25

The U.S case	25

The South Korea case	26

Working Age Population	27

The U.S case	27

The South Korea case	28

Shrinking city	29

The U.S case	29

The South Korea case	30

Rural decline	30

The U.S case	31

The South Korea case	32

Cause of depopulation	33

Low birthrate	33

Shrinking cities	35

Rural flight	36

Consequences of depopulation	37

Socio-economic effect	38

The U.S case	40

The South Korea case	40

Creating a Cycle of Local Economic Downturn	41

Change of national spatial structure	43

Present policies and public services to reverse depopulation	44

The U.S case	45

The South Korea case	47

Present government organization related depopulation	48

The U.S case	48

The South Korea case	50

Key Lessons Learned from the U.S.-Korea Comparison	55

Korea Needs Multiple Solutions	55

What kind of public service is needed?	61

Strategy to innovate on government and service delivery system.	73

Recommendation for Korea	76

Short-term Policy Recommendations	66

Long-term Policy Recommendations	75

Summary	94

Reference	104
인구감소시대 정부조직과 행정서비스 전달체계 혁신전략 연구

-글로벌 핵심인재 양성과정, 신뢰받는 정부 분야 훈련과제-

(한글 요약본)

서론

인구구조, 인구 감소, 인구 절벽, 인구 절벽, 고령화, 저출산 등 최근 21 세기 인구와 구조와 관련된 용어가 많이 있습니다. 이런 종류의 새로운 용어의 통용은 인구 통계가 여전히 중요하다는 증거입니다. 비슷한 맥락에서 국가의 미래는 인구 통계에 의해 결정됩니다. 특히, 미래학자는 국가의 출산율, 도시화 추세 및 인구 집단의 연령 구조를 연구하여 국가의 장기적인 미래를 파악합니다.

인구 분석과 정책 대응은 정부가 수행하는 주요기능 중 하나입니다. 2013 년을 기준으로 했을 때, 102개국이 고령화에 관심을 보이며 54 개국은 출산율을 높이기 위한 정책을 시행하고 있습니다.

미국과 한국의 인구 감소 원인에는 주요한 유사점과 차이점이 있습니다. 유사성 측면에서, 둘 다 출생률 감소와 고령화 사회를 겪었다는 것이 있습니다. 동시에, 두 지역 모두 농촌 지역에서 더 큰 감소를 경험했습니다.

차이점으로 볼 때, 미국은 연방 인구, 즉 전체 인구 측면에서는 인구가 증가 하고있습니다. 그러나 한국은 급격한 인구감소를 경험하고 있습니다(UN, 2017). 국가마다 차이가 있을 수 있지만 인구감소는 불가피하다는 것을 인지해야 합니다.

연구목적은 미국과 한국의 경우 인구 감소 경험과 정책 대응을 비교하고 대조하는 것입니다. 그리고 한국이 자신의 인구 감소를 해결하기 위해 사용할 수 있는 주요 추천사항을 확인하는 것입니다.

인구 감소가 심한 한국과 인구 감소의 딜레마에 이르지 않은 미국을 비교하면 좋은 시사점이 있을 수 있습니다.

이 연구는 주로 정부 및 인구 통계 데이터의 사용, 문헌 검토, 연구 방법에 대한 사례 연구에 의존합니다. 또한 저출산과 고령화로 인한 인구 구조의 변화에 대해 논의하고 각국의 향후 서비스 및 운영 시스템을 검토할 것입니다.

핵심 개념

인구 감소

웹스터의 온라인 사전에 따르면, 인구 감소는 장기 대체 인구 통계, 낮은 출산율, 도시축소, 향촌이도 또는 폭력, 질병, 기타 재난과 같은 이유로 인한 인구가 감소하는 것을 말합낟. 감소를 말합니다.

전체적으로 미국과 한국은 향후 수십 년까지 인구 증가 측면에서 매우 유사하지만 한국 인구는 보다 빠른 속도로 감소할 것입니다.

고령화 사회

고령화 사회는 평균 수명과 출산율이 감소함에 따라 65세 이상 노인의 비율이 전체 인구의 7% 이상인 국가를 말합니다. 유엔 표준에 따르면, 고령화 사회는 65 세 이상의 인구가 전체 인구의 7 %를 초과하는 국가 또는 지역으로 정의됩니다.

노인 인구 비율 = (65 세 이상 인구 / 총 인구) × 100

전반적으로 미국과 한국은 노령화 사회가 진행되고 있다는 점에서 매우 유사하지만 다른 특성은 속도에 관한 것입니다.

저출산

OECD에 따르면, 특정 연도의 총 출산율은 각 가임기 여성이 낳은 총 어린이 수로 정의됩니다. 일반적인 연령별 출산율. 여성 1 인당 약 2.1 명의 어린이의 비율을 대체 수준 출산율 (UN, Popup Division) 이라고 합니다.

생산가능 인구

인구 통계 학적 관점에서 볼 때, 이는 경제적으로 생존 가능한 15-64 세 인구를 의미합니다. OECD는 인구 통계 학적 관점의 정의를 따릅니다. 인구 통계적 보너스는 사회의 인구 통계적 변화 과정에서 생산 인구 (15-64 세)의 비율을 일시적으로 증가시켜 노동력과 소비를 증가시켜 얻을 수있는 추가 경제 성장 가능성을 의미합니다.

전반적으로 미국과 한국은 전체 인구에 대한 생산가능인구 비율이 감소한다는 점에서 매우 유사합니다. 그러나 미국은 여전히 생산가능인구가 증가하고 있지만 한국은 곧 생산가능인구가 감소될 수 있다고 예측됩니다.

축소도시

감소 된 도시를 정의하는 기준은 학자 나 지역에 따라 다르지만 인구 감소와 버려진 구조물 (빈 부지)의 증가는 종종 대표적인 신호로 여겨진다. 이것은 인구 감소와 경제 구조 변화가 큰 도시 지역입니다”. 예를 들어, 인구 감소는 40 년 동안 25 % 이상 감소 , 인구 감소는 50 년 동안 또는 연간 1 % 이상 감소합니다

전반적으로 미국과 한국은 도시 축소 문제가 있다는 점에서 매우 유사합니다. 인구가 감소하는 시기에 도시는 축소되고 있습니다. 오늘날 도시 인구의 감소는 매우 보편적이며 세계적인 현상입니다. 통계에 따르면 미국 인구의 13 %와 유럽 도시의 54 %가 인구 감소를 경험하고 있으며 이 수치는 계속 증가하고 있습니다.

농촌 쇠퇴

대도시의 낮은 출산율과 노후화 및 인구 집중으로 인한 인구 감소로 인해 많은 지역이 소멸 위기에 처해 있습니다. 낮은 출생률은 국가적 현상입니다. 그러나 심각한 것은 지자체입니다.

전체적으로 미국과 한국은 농촌의 쇠퇴가 심화된다는 점에서 비슷합니다. 그러나 미국은 한국보다 이것에 대해 더 많은 경험을 가지고 있습니다.

인구 감소의 원인

인구 구성의 변화는 출산율, 사망률 (평균 수명), 인구 이동 (이민, 인구 유입, 지역간 이주)에 의해 결정되며, 현재 출산율 감소와 출산율 감소는 인구 구성의 변화를 통제하는 핵심 요소입니다. 즉, 출산율 감소와 인구 고령화로 인한 인구 증가율이 전 세계적으로 확산되고 있습니다. 미국과 한국도 특정 상황의 원인이 있습니다.

인구 감소의 결과

인구 감소는 여러 각도에서 여러 가지 영향을 미칩니다.

사회 구조적 관점에서 보면 노동 생산성이 낮아지고, 국내 시장이 축소되고, 사회 보장 지출과 사회 갈등이 증가하고, 교육 불평등이 심화되고, 국방 자원이 줄어들고, 주에서 사라질 수 있습니다. 노동력과 관련하여, 노동 인구의 감소로 인한 인력 부족과 노령화로 인한 생산성의 감소가 있습니다.

국내 시장의 위축은 소비 및 투자의 위축으로 인한 국가 경쟁력 약화 및 경기 침체로 이어질 수 있습니다. 또한 국가 세금 및 건강 보험의 젊은이들의 부담이 급격히 증가함에 따라 세대 간 갈등이 심화 될 수 있습니다. 교육 불평등 심화는 학교 수 감소로 인해 교육 서비스 이용에있어 불평등을 심화시키고 지역 교육을 악화시킵니다.

또한, 젊은이 수의 감소는 방위 인력을 줄이고 방위 비용을 줄이는 압력을 증가시킵니다. 지역 소멸이란 인구 감소로 인해 지방 정부가 소멸 될 위험을 의미합니다.

인구 감소 대응 정책 및 공공 서비스 : 미국과 한국의 사례

전반적으로 미국과 한국은 인구 통계 학적 문제에 대한 적절한 대응을 시도한 점에서 매우 유사합니다.

미국에서는 출생률과 관련된 대부분의 정책이 개인영역에서 자율적인 방향으로 추진되었고, 지역개발정책이 중점적으로 추진 되었습니다.

한국에서는 정부가 출생률에 직접 정책을 적용하려 했습니다. 동시에 한국은 지역개발정책을 추진하려고 노력했다.

한국의 인구 감소 문제는 다각적입니다. 따라서 다방면의 해결책이 필요합니다.

컨트롤 타워

복지 제도 개혁 :

정책 프로젝트의 설계

농촌 사회 복지

도시 정책

확장 지향 개발

중앙 집중식 대응보다 지역맞춤형 대응

민간 부문과의 협력

인구감소에 대응한 공공서비스

인구 통계 학적 구조의 변화는 새로운 행정 수요를 가져옵니다.

출산 및 보육 지원

노동 시장 개선

인적 서비스

최소 서비스

연령에 따른 인구그룹별 공공서비스 수요

연령에 다른 인구그룹별 공공서비스 수요는 다릅니다. 즉, 수명주기의 각 그룹에 적합한 정책 패키지가 구성되고 제안되었습니다. 각 영역에 대한 세부적인 정책 작업이 연계되어 추진 될 때 출산 정책의 효과가 향상 될 것으로 예상됩니다.

한국에의 시사점

이전 부분에서 분석된 내용을 바탕으로 한국에 필요한 단기 및 장기 정책 권장사항을 제시하고자 합니다.

문제는 조건의 변화에 대응하고 사람들의 삶의 질을 보장하고 인구 감소와 도시 축소를 방지하는 방법입니다. 즉, 인구 감소 시대에 정부가 해야 할 주요 역할 중 하나는 감소하는 인구를 체계적으로 활용하기 위한 정책과 시스템을 설계하는 것입니다. 아래에서는 정부가 단기 및 장기적으로 해결할 수있는 주요 정책 영역을 강조합니다.

단기 정책 권장 사항

방향 :

지역 개발과 도시 축소를 통해 인구를 분산시켜야합니다. 인구 감소 시대의 도시 정책은 새로운 개발이 아닌 도시 재생과 지역 사회 활성화에 초점을 두어야 합니다.

패러다임 전환

남성 육아 휴직 확대 정책과 유연한 근로 제도가 적극적으로 도입되고 가정에서 실제로 양육하는 남성 아동을 지원하는 정책이 활성화되면 부부와의 양육 문화가 조성될 수 있습니다.

중앙정부의 지원은 여전히 필요

지방 정부 역할의 중요성

도시·농촌 서비스 재조정.

인구 감소 시대 도시 및 농촌 개선계획

도시 및 농촌 기능·구조 조정

물리적 시설의 재구성

투자 위치 변경

공유 경제

장기 정책 권장 사항

방향 :

장기적으로는 출산율을 높이는 것이 필수적이며, 중기 적으로는 인구 문제와 지역 문제를 해결해야 합니다. 즉, 장기적인 관점에서 볼 때 출산은 다른 문제에 접근해야 합니다

정책 통합·단순화

보조금을 포함하여 너무 많은 종류의 출산 지원이 있습니다. 복지의 가장 큰 문제는 많은 종류의 돈이 있고 금액이 크지 않다는 것입니다. 사람들은 무엇을 지불하고, 무엇을받을 수 있는지, 무엇을 받고 있는지 모릅니다.

누군가가 65 세가되면 누군가가 얻을 수있는 것을 모르고 누군가가 아기가있을 때 얻을 수있는 것을 정확히 알지 못합니다. 공무원들은 잘 모르기 때문에 행정력 낭비도 많이 발생합니다.

이를 대상과 종류를 기준으로 단순화 해야 합니다.

긴밀한 간호 및 복지 네트워크 구축

소비자가 쉽게 이해하고 접근 할 수있는 간결한 간호 및 복지 네트워크를 구축해야합니다. 시민들이 정부와 지방 정부가 시행하는 다양한 모성 인센티브 정책, 간호 지원 정책 및 복지 정책을 쉽게 식별하고 적용 할 수 있도록 포털 사이트를 구축해야합니다.

이를 위해 사각 지대는 빅 데이터 분석을 통해 분석됩니다. 존재하지 않는지 확인하고 포털 사이트를 통해 쉽게 식별하고 적용 할 수 있도록 분석해야합니다. 시민의 입장에서는 다양한 정책을 이해하고 접근하기가 어렵다는 것이 지적되었습니다.

사회의 전체 시스템 변경

한국이 확장 지향적 사회 시스템을 유지했다면 앞으로 견고한 사회 시스템을 구축해야합니다. 경제 산업의 도시 계획, 주택 및 주택에 확장 지향 정책이 구현 되었다면, 현재 상태를 유지하거나 내부를 목표로하는 방향으로 사회의 전체 시스템을 변경해야합니다.

협력 거버넌스 :

민간, 지역 및 정부 (거버넌스)의 협력 시스템을 강화하는 것입니다. 이를 위해 기업, 시민 사회, 지역, 중앙 정부 간 협의회를 구성, 강화하고 부서별 저 출생 · 고령화 사회 정책 예산을 평가 · 관리함으로써 위원회 컨트롤타워의 기능을 강화하고 있습니다.

Introduction

Nowadays there is a lot of terms related to the recent 21st century population and structure: Population-decline, Population onus, Population cliff, aging and low birthrate so on. The prevalence of new terms of this kind is a proof that demography is still important.

In the similar context, the future of nations is written in their demographics. In particular, a futurist can study national fertility rates, urbanization trends and the age structure of population groups to get a picture of a country’s long-term future. Population analysis and its policy response was one of the important tasks that governments should do.

As a result, as of 2013, 102 countries are showing a keen interest in aging, and 54 countries are implementing policies to raise fertility rates (Lee at al. 2014).

Overall, the current world population, including population in South Korea and the United States, is on the rise, but the growth trend is declining.  At the same time, fertility rate is decreasing, working age population is decreasing, and it is aging.

In a word, this is a trend of declining population around the world. According to UN, the estimated population of 7.6 billion people worldwide will increase to 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100. Population decline is particularly problematic in both the United States and Korea(2017).

The report says that the population of 83 million people is growing annually and that population growth is likely to continue, despite the worldwide declining fertility rate since the 1960s (UN, 2017).

The US case

In the case of the United States, the de-population trend at the federal level is gentle and less problematic. However, the problem is that shrinking cities and disappearing rural counties are accelerating.

Population of the U.S. is expected to continue to increase during 2015-2060 based on thing that population growth rate in 2060 compared to 2015 is 28% (UN, 2017)

The South Korea case

In the case of Korea, it is characterized by super-low birth rate country, the fastest aging society, and rapid deceleration of the working age population. In addition, local disappearance in the countryside can be regarded as a big problem.

The most significant feature is that the elderly people over 65 are the majority of the population and it is difficult to find people, particularly women between 20 and 39 years old.

Population decline county in 2040 compared to 2013 is 52.9% (National Institute of Land Research, 2015) of the whole country, my 84 start-up • 1,388 municipalities can be destroyed (Korea Employment Information Service, 2016). As the growth of low-growth, population decline and aging has progressed rapidly, overall change of the national spatial system will also be expected.

Key similarities and differences

There are key similarities and differences in the sources of population decline in the U.S. and South Korea. In terms of similarities, both have gone through declining birthrate and aging society. At the same time, both have experienced greater decline in rural areas.

In terms of differences, the U.S are okay in the federal level based on thing that total population are increasing, but the South Korea will experience decrease of the thtal population of the country(UN, 2017). Although differences may vary from country to country, it is better that we know that population decline is inevitable.

This depopulation will bring big changes in economy and society in general. The government needs to minimize the declining trend, that is, effort to reverse declining population in national and regional, urban and rural policy.

At the same time, government need to prepare for innovation strategy ahead on the overall governmental organization not just the federal but state and local governments and the public service delivery system in terms of both the national and regional (urban, rural) population decline.

The aim of this paper is to compare and contrast the population decline experiences and policy responses in the U.S. and South Korean case. And from there identify key lessons that Korea could use to address it’s own population decline.

There would be good implications for comparing Korea, a welfare state that is in a period of severe population decline, and the US, a liberal welfare state that has not reached the dilemma of declining population.

This study treats the study subject as a problem in the age of demographic decline, and deals with the United States and Korea, respectively. We analyze the two countries' population decline problems, causes and effects, and policy prescriptions, and compare the two countries and apply the context.

This study uses the United States as a case example from which lessons for South Korea can be identified and focuses on two aspects of the U.S. case:

Sources of U.S. Population Decline: study first examines the characteristics of demographics, and then analyzes the socioeconomic structure of low birthrate and aging (analysis of the factors of low fertility and the impact of aging on the socioeconomic context)

U.S. Policy Response to Address Population Decline: Analyzing various policy and promotion projects and systems related to low birthrate and aging, and finally develop a flow of proposing meaningful policy prescriptions at the present stage.

This study relies mainly on the use of government and demographic data, literature review, case studies on research methods. In addition, the changes in the population structure due to low birthrate and aging will be discussed, and the future service and operation system for each country will be examined.

Literature review

In order to understand population decline, we must first define key terms and factors associated with population decline. Below I describe each of these key terms and how they are connected to population decline. In terms of connection, low birthrate have caused the number of working age population decreases and aging society in a chain. This phenomenon accumulates, resulting in a decrease in the overall population. This, in turn, serves as an impediment to economic growth and national development. Moreover, when we divide the country into provinces and look closely, the phenomenon of population decline appears as a decrease in the population of small cities and rural areas.

Key concept

Depopulation

According to Webster's Online Dictionary the A population decline (or depopulation) is a reduction in a population caused by events such as long-term demographic trends, as in sub-replacement fertility, urban decay, white flight, or rural flight, or due to violence, disease, or other catastrophes.

Brunow and Hirte (2005) analyzed that a specific age group by region affects the increase in output per capita, and that the 30-44 year old age group has the greatest growth effect.

Lindh and Malmberg (1998) analyzed the relationship between population structure and gross domestic product (GDP) by classifying 15 to 29 years old, 30 to 49 years old, 50 to 64 years old, and 65 years of age or older. It was analyzed to have a positive effect on the.

Bloom et al. (2008) analyzed age groups by classifying them into 0-14 year olds, 15-59 year olds, and 60-year-olds or older. He argued that policies and institutions that determine the economic impact of aging are important and that labor force participation should be encouraged to continue to utilize the expertise of the aging population.

Masda (2015) used the 20-39 year old female population as an indicator of the possibility of regional extinction. The population change rate in 2040 was calculated by reflecting the population movement, and an area in which the population was reduced to over 50% was derived.

Table. 1. Age classification and characteristics of each age group

Age classification	Characteristics
0-9 years old group	Low fertility rate It reflects well that the reduction in the number of children of childbearing age and the number of births is linked.
10 to 19 years old (school age population):	Reduction in the number of students per class University oversupply problem
20-39 years (Core age group)	-Balance between regions of childbearing age -Good representation of childbirth potential - Increase of single households
40-49 years (Population Vitality Population)	The age group with the highest household consumption When consumption decreases, it causes consumption cliff
50-64 years (Asset Population)	Age group with the highest net assets High rate of home ownership and increased savings in preparation for old age
65-74 years (Age population)	New production and production centered on young people Risen by consumption forces
75 years or older (Ultra-aged population)	High poverty rate among the elderly due to poverty rate, poverty and psychological solitude High proportion of elderly living alone

* Source: Hyun-Jae Jeon and Hee-Yeon Lee, 2017, 29.

Aging society

An aging society refers to a country where the proportion of elderly people aged 65 or older is more than 7% of the total population as the average life expectancy and fertility rate decrease.

According to the UN standards, the aging society is defined as the country or region in which the share of population aged over 65 exceeds seven percent of the whole population. In addition, more than 7% aged society, more than 14% aged society, more than 20% aged society:

Elderly population ratio

= (population over 65 years old / total population) × 100

Low birthrate

According to OECD, The total fertility rate in a specific year is defined as the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates.

TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is called Replacement-level fertility (UN, Population Division).
Low fertility (low birth rate) is a phenomenon in which the fertility rate falls below the fertility rate required for population maintenance. However, generally speaking, less than 2.1 people are unable to maintain the current population.

Working Age Population

From a demographic point of view, it refers to the population aged 15 to 64 who is economically viable. The OECD follows the definition of a demographic perspective.

Demographic bonus refers to the potential for additional economic growth that can be obtained by increasing the labor force and consumption by temporarily increasing the proportion of the productive population (ages 15-64) in the process of demographic change in a society.

Demographic changes go through a stage in which both the fertility rate and the mortality rate are high, the mortality rate is lowered, and the fertility rate is also lowered. Following the decline in mortality, the rate of childbirth also declines rapidly, while the proportion of adolescents decreases, while they become productive and the proportion of the productable population among the total population.

This becomes higher. The fact that the ratio of the productive population is high does not mean the population bonus, but in order to convert the productive population to the population bonus, policies and investments must be preceded (Population Society 2016).

On the contrary, it refers to a phenomenon in which economic growth is delayed due to a decrease in the proportion of the productive population as the productive population, which has been the core subject of the population bonus, has entered old age (Population Society 2016).

However, a decrease in the proportion of the workable population does not necessarily lead to population ownership. Also, depending on the government and society's actions, it is possible to make the population owner a second population bonus (Lee and Mason 2006).

Shrinking city

The criteria for defining a reduced city vary depending on the scholar or region, but the decrease in population and the increase in the abandoned structure (vacant lot) are often seen as representative signs. This is the urban areas experiencing widespread population decline and economic structural changes”(Pallagst. 2008).

For example, population decline by more than 25% over 40 years (Schiling & Logan, 2008), population decline by more than 10% over 50 years or over 1% per annum (Oswalt & Rieniets, 2006) (Wiechmann & Wolff, 2013) as a collapsed city.

In terms of population reduction, the county area has a reduction rate of more than twice that of the city area or the old area, and the decrease is occurring in almost all age groups, so fundamental measures are required. Population changes are classified into five types: ① low birth rate intensified metropolitan type, ② population decline serious and aging intensified metropolitan type, ③ fertility declining local city type, ④ small and small population, and small population intensification, ⑤ rural areas with high probability of extinction(Ryu, 2019)

The population is declining in many cities around the world. “From 1990 to 2000, more than a quarter of the cities with a population of over 100,000 are declining(Shrinking Cities Vol. 1 International Research, 2005).”

According to the previous book, the number of miniature cities in the world doubled between 1960 and 1990. But only in the 10 years of the end of the century it doubled again. It is increasing rapidly (Hiroshi, 2013: 20).

According to the UN-HABITAT's State of the World's Cities (2008-2009), in 1990-2000 49 cities in the UK, 48 in Germany, and 34 cities in Italy (population 10) Population). There are many smaller cities in Russia and Eastern European cities of the former Soviet Union, and about 100 cities in Russia and 40 cities in Ukraine are considered as small cities (Hiroshi, 2013: 103).

The shrinking population of cities is evident all over the world. Northern England Industry, Cities, historic cities in Scotland, industrial cities in Germany and Eastern Europe, economic stagnation cities in southern Italy, textile cities in Russia, mining cities in Asia, and severe winter climates, called the 'Frost Belt' Industrial cities around the Great Lakes of the United States, or historic cities in the eastern United States where the city center is shared by suburbanization, mining cities in Korea, Latin America, and Australia (Hiroshi, 2013: 20).

Rural decline

Many local areas are at risk of extinction due to population decline due to low fertility and aging and population concentration in large cities. The low birth rate is a national phenomenon. However, the severity is local(An, 2018).

The most common changes due to population decline are the increase in empty houses and the decrease in public facilities. Due to the decrease in the school-age population, the number of closed schools increased and the supply of elderly leisure facilities such as the Senior Citizen Party increased as the aged population increased. As the aging of urban infrastructure such as roads, electricity, gas, and water and sewage is rapidly progressing, it is a common phenomenon that the quality of life falls sharply because maintenance costs cannot be paid. The decrease in labor force caused by the reduction of the younger age groups inevitably leads to a contraction in economic activity, leading to the closing of shopping malls and factories.

The closed streets and the closed factories provide a vicious cycle that leads to deterioration of the residential environment in adjacent residential areas(Ryu, 2019).

Key Concepts to the U.S. and South Korean Case

This section highlights key concepts applied to the U.S and South Korea case to detect the specific trend of both countries associated with this decline for the U.S. case and the South Korea.

Depopulation

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of their population increased until next few decades, but the population of the South Korea will decline with rapid speed.

The US case

population has a fairly stable character. In the United Stated, as a result of the baby boom and the recent upturn in the fertility rate at the population level, the increase in immigrants and the decline in mortality, the US population has maintained a steady growth in terms of size over the long term,

In addition, it can be said that it is advantageous to plan sustainable development very stable in terms of age structure, but the speed of growth becomes slow. The decline in U.S. population growth is likely due to a confluence of factors: lower levels of immigration, population aging, and declining fertility rates (Lee, 2017).

Between 2010 and 2011, the U.S. population increased by 0.7 percent, after averaging 0.9 percent growth each year from 2000 through 2010. The United States added just 2.3 million people from 2010 to 2011, compared with 2.9 million from 2005 to 2006, just five years. A drop in net immigration to the United States is a key factor in the country’s declining population growth rate.

Around the turn of the millennium, the Census Bureau was estimating net international migration at about 1.4 million per year. By late in the decade, that annual number had been adjusted downward to less than 900,000. Between 2010 and 2011, net migration was estimated at around 700,000.

The drop in immigration levels means that a smaller share of U.S. population growth is directly attributable to immigration, as opposed to natural increase (the excess of births over deaths). In the early 2000s, immigration accounted for roughly 40 percent of U.S. population growth, leaving 60 percent from natural increase.

During the past few years ,however, netinternation a lmigration is estimated to have accounted for only 30 percent of the annual population growth (Mark, 2012)

The South Korea case

The annual average population growth rate in Korea dropped from 1.3% in 1980-1990 to 0.53% in 2000-2010. After that, it fell sharply to 0.38% in 2010-2015 and remains stagnant. It is anticipated that from 2030 the era of population cliffs with a declining absolute population will come(2016).

According to the National Statistical Office's (2011) prospective population forecast, the total population of Korea (middle-income households) increased from 49.41 million in 2010 to peak at 52.16 million in 2030 and gradually decreased to 48.21 million in 2050 Respectively.

The population growth rate is expected to decline from 0.46% in 2010 to reach 0.01% in 2030 and to reach -0.78% in 2060 after a negative trend.

Another new aspect of the regional population problem is the low birth rate. The low birth rate over about 20 years. It has progressed, and it is expected that there will be no sudden easing in the future.

Therefore, in the past, the population was seen as increasing. In the future, it is decided to enter the population cliff or decrease in population(An, 2018).

Aging society

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of their aging society are on process, but the different characteristic is about speed.

The U.S. case

The aging of the US population is progressing at a very slow pace. The proportion of the elderly population over 65 years in the total population increased from 5.4% in 1930 to 13.0% in 2010, and the median age increased from 26.4 in 1930 to 37.2 in 2010.

Over the past 80 years, the elderly population has increased by 7.6 percentage points and the median age by 10.8.

The US population aging process is different from other OECD countries including Korea. Most aging in OECD countries is due to different reverse changes in the age group, where the youth population (0-14 years) and the working age population (15-64 years) are decreasing and the elderly population is increasing, while the US population Aging is caused by a relatively high increase in the elderly population, with a steady increase in the youth population, the workable population, and the elderly population until recently.

Over the past 80 years, the youth population has increased 1.7 times and the producible population has increased 2.6 times, while the elderly population has increased 6.1 times (Mark, 2012)

South Korea case

The proportion of elderly people aged 65 or older will rise from 5.4% in 1992 to 13.1% in 2015, which will take 23 years. The proportion of elderly people aged 65 or older is projected to increase sharply from 5.9% in 1995 to 10.9% in 2010, 13.1% in 2015, 15.7% in 2020, 24.3% in 2030 and 32.3% in 2040 (Gwack, 2016).

The expected life expectancy of Koreans in 1960 It is expected to increase from 52.4 to 82.4 in 2014 and increase to 30 years (average of 0.56 years) in the past 55 years, and to increase to 88.6 in 2060. This increase in life expectancy is a common phenomenon all over the world, but Korea's speed is relatively fast compared to other developed countries (Choi, 2016).

Like this, population aging and the steady increase in the size and proportion of the elderly population are the most pressing phenomenon of changes in the demographic structure of Korea.

A new and different aspect of the local population problem is that the main classes of the population will shift from baby boomers to older populations. While the number of births is small, the existing baby boom generation is aging.

Therefore, the population pyramid will change from a jar-type to an inverted pyramid. (An, 2018)

Working age population

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of the fact that their working age population rate to total population is decreasing.

But the U.S are still increasing the working age population, but the South Korea soon have the decreasing the working age population

The U.S case

According United States Census, the number of working age groups are icreasing. In 2012, there were 197,041 thousands people in working age group in U.S, and in 2050, there will be 230,417 thousands people in that group.

However, the working age groups tend to slow the aging of the population. In 2012, 62.8 percent of the U.S. population was aged 18 to 64. By 2030, as the baby boomers age, the proportions in these working ages will drop to 57.3 percent

The South Korea case

It is characterized by a decrease in the proportion of the working age population and an increase in old-age support. According to the statistics, the most active economic activity population(25~49) has already started to decline in 2010.

In 2010, there were 367,000 fewer people than in 2005. Since the baby boom generation (born 1955-1963) is deviating from the core production floor, the decline in the core economically active population is likely to continue (Park, 2013)

With the aging of the population, the proportion of working age population will decline from 73% in 2015 to 63.1% in 2030 and 56.5% in 2040.

On the other hand, Old-age dependency ratio (percentage of population aged 65 or older per 100 people) will rise from 17.9% in 2015 to 38.6% in 2030 and 57.2% in 2040 (Gwak, 2016) In other words, the working age population (15-64) will increase to 72.8% in 2010 but will decrease to 49.7% in 2060.

In 2010, the share of the population aged 15-64 in Korea was the highest among the major OECD member countries (66.9 in the US, 66.0 in the UK, 64.8 in France, 64.0 in Japan) 57.7, France: 57.7, and Bon: 51.1)

In the Demographic Bonus, which experienced economic growth due to increased labor force and consumption as the share of the producible population increased, the peak of working age population declined in 2016, Demographic Onus, a period in which economic growth slows as more and more elderly people are shrinking production and need to support it.

Shrinking cities

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of the fact that both have the shrinking cities problem. In times of declining population, cities are shrinking cities. The decline of urban population today is a very universal and global phenomenon.

Many cities in the declining population experience inevitably natural population declines(Gwak, 2016) According to statistics, 13% of US cities and 54% of European cities are experiencing population decline, and this figure continues to increase (Wiechmann and Pallagst. 2012).

The U.S case

According to the US Census data, between 1990 and 2010, 29 out of 55 cities in the non-metropolitan area declined in population(Gwak, 2016). For example, Detroit is the most notable of a number of cities with population smaller than in 1950 and whose population shrinkage has been the most dramatic; Detroit's population was almost 1.85 million as of the 1950 census but has plummeted to 677,000 as of 2015, with the most rapid decline occurring between 2000 and 2010.

It is pointed out that 9 out of 50 central cities have been declining continuously since 1950.

The nine cities are Baltimore (Maryland), Buffalo (New York), Cincinnati (Ohio), Cleveland (Ohio), Detroit (Michigan), Philadelphia (Pennsylvania), Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), and St. Louis (Missouri), Washington, D.C. Etc. Cities, half of all miniature cities, are experiencing decline due to urbanization and suburbization.

The South Korea case

Currently, the total population of the nation is increasing, but with the exception of the metropolitan area, the population is declining in almost all attempts. If the national population is to be reduced further, urban population decline will accelerate (Gwak, 2016).

Rural decline

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are similar in terms of the fact that their rural decline become deepened. But the U.S have had more experiences about this than South Korea.

The U.S case

Although many rural counties have shown population losses for decades, nowadays is the first period on record of overall rural population decline. The number of people living in rural (non-metro) counties stood at 46.1 million in July 2016 (Cromartie, 2017). According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest population estimates, the sixth consecutive year of modest population losses.

Despite ever increasing population in the United States, some American municipalities have shrunk due to urban decay in large cities and rural flight in smaller towns. Other American cities whose populations have shrunk substantially since the 1950s – although some have begun to grow again – include New Orleans; St. Louis; Buffalo, New York; Philadelphia; Chicago; Cleveland; Pittsburgh; and Wilmington, Delaware. Similarly, Johnson and Lichter provide clear evidence of depopulation across a broad swatch of rural America.

That is, depopulation seemingly is now built into the demographic framework of some parts of rural America—a result of chronic outmigration among young adults of reproductive age, along with population aging and high mortality rates.

Yet, depopulation is not universal in whole America. Many rural regions continue to grow, often rapidly, including exurban areas just beyond the metropolitan suburban fringe, and high-amenity recreational and retirement areas. These counties are likely to hold their own demographically in the future.

The situation is much different for the depopulating rural counties caught in a downward spiral of population loss (2019).

The South Korea case

There are already signs of annihilation after aging (Korea National Statistical Office, 2016), because the aged population of the rural areas is more than 20% and the aged population is 30-40%. Of the basic municipalities nationwide, 59 cities and counties have fewer than 300 births in 2018 (An, 2018).

The low birth rate problem in the region is much more serious than the low birth rate problem seen in the country. Since the region has been experiencing low birth rates, aging populations, and population outflows for a long time, the seriousness of the problem has already reached its limit.

Particularly, through urbanization and industrialization represented by the phenomenon of leaving the countryside and heading to the city, some farming and fishing villages have shrunk unparalleled in the past.

Therefore, some local governments may experience a problem of scale loss. As low birth rate progresses, there may be a colony that loses the city and county and community functions as a self-governing organization (An, 2018).

In this section, we tried to applied the key concepts related the depopulation to the U.S and the South Korea. Next section I highlight population decline and cause factors associated with this decline generally.

Cause of depopulation

Changes in population composition are determined by fertility rate, mortality (life expectancy), population migration (immigration, population influx, interregional migration), and now the declining fertility rate and low birth rate are the key factors controlling the changes in population composition.

In other words, the decline in population growth due to the declining fertility rate and the aging of the population are spreading globally. The U.S and the South Korea also have this causes of their specific situations.

Low birthrate

Since the predictions of coming population overshoot in the 1960s and 70s, and many other social changes, more couples in many countries have tended to choose to have fewer children. These 'low-fertility traps' are intensely representative of new social risks due to changes in population composition.

The fertility rates of both U.S. has been maintained approximately at the replacement level, although they reached the lowest level of 1.6~1.7 for a short period in the past. Even with favorable demographic conditions, both countries have made efforts to continuously improve the social systems for better environments for child-rearing. (Analysis of international trends related to low fertility measures: United States United Kingdom)

One of the most crucial factors that have contributed to the demographic change in Korea is the low birth rate problem. Korea's total fertility rate has fallen steadily since it fell below the replacement fertility rate (2.1 persons) for the first time in 1983, reaching the world's lowest at 1.24 as of 2015.

The low fertility rate has been on the rise since 2001, when the total fertility rate has fallen from less than 1.3. (Gwak, 2016). In 2018, Korea's total fertility rate was 0.98, the lowest among the 34 OECD countries. In Korea, it is named "0.98 shock".

The group that contributes to the decrease in the number of births is the younger generation, and their delay in marriage and delay in childbirth are exacerbating the low birth rate. So why are they delaying or giving up childbirth even if they are married and married?

The background is Korea's low-growth economy and deepening economic instability. There is a youth problem in which employment is unstable at the time of marriage, and the burden of parenting is serious because they have to get married and get married.

In addition, it is difficult to maintain family life due to the pressure of labor, such as long hours of work, performance orientation, and competition. Parenting and education costs still lie in the family's full burden, and, to make matters worse, the economic burden of maintaining the family, such as high residential costs, is very high.

Due to these realistic conditions, the perception of marriage or family formation is changing. In other words, as the opportunity cost of maintaining family life rises, the values of marriage and children are changing. Despite a variety of factors, including social and social problems, the low fertility rate continues despite the aggressive low birth rate measures, and it is difficult to expect an increase in fertility rates.

Shrinking cities

This kind of cities often occurs due to changes in industrial structures and suburbanization of cities. In particular, in the United States, cities in the Rust Belt region of the northeastern United States, which experienced declining urbanization due to the collapse of the manufacturing base, can also be seen as a victim of industrial structure fluctuations.

Due to the suburbanization of the city, the central city may also decline. Many large cities in the United States experienced problems such as deteriorating service quality of central cities and idle land due to the suburbanization of large cities since the 1960s (Gwak, 2016)

In an era where 25% of the world's cities with a population of more than 100,000 are heading towards shrinking, and in an era where the rate will increase rapidly in the future, the study of shrinking cities will become the mainstream of urban research (Hiroshi, 2013: 33).

rural flight

Rural flight (or rural exodus) is the migratory pattern of peoples from rural areas into urban areas. It is urbanization seen from the rural perspective. Rural flight is exacerbated when the population decline leads to the loss of rural services such as business enterprises and schools, which leads to greater loss of population as people leave to seek those features.

Shrinking cities in the United States, on the other hand, has been forming since 2006 in dense urban centers while external suburban areas continue to grow.

The main cause of population decline is in jobs and education, and the problem of jobs in the provinces is not in quantitative factors but in qualitative factors. If young people do not have the jobs they prefer, they should create an environment that creates the jobs they want.

The development of social economic organization can be an alternative for regional revitalization, and local government efforts and interest closely related to the field are needed.

Consequences of depopulation

The decline in population has various consequences in terms of multiple angles. From a social structural perspective, it can result in low labor productivity, shrinking the domestic market, increasing social security expenditure and social conflict, deepening educational inequality, reducing defense resources, and disappearing from the province. With regard to the workforce, there is a shortage of workforce due to a decrease in the workable population, and a decrease in productivity due to an aging workforce.

The contraction of the domestic market can lead to a weakening of national competitiveness and a recession due to contraction in consumption and investment. In addition, conflicts between generations may intensify due to the rapid increase in the burden of young people from national salt and health insurance. Intensifying educational inequality intensifies inequality in access to educational services due to a decrease in the number of schools, and worsens regional education.

In addition, a decrease in the number of young people increases the pressure to reduce defense manpower and reduce defense costs. Local extinction refers to the risk that local governments will be extinguished due to a decrease in population.

From a personal and microscopic point of view, population declines lead to economic difficulties, reduced quality of life, and changes in the preference system.

In other words, the real gdp per capita decreases, the private stimulus function among families is weakened, the burden on the younger people increases, the income and health anxiety of the elderly increases, and the pursuit of material values or leisure rather than the pleasures of marriage and child-rearing, in the future. Anxiety is reflected.

In this section, I tried to detect of general resuls of the depopulation and factors because the U.S. or Korea. have experienced the exact same result of depopulation.

Socio-economic effect

The economic effects of changes in population structure due to low fertility and aging are likely to have a negative impact on the potential growth rate by reducing labor and capital input on supply side and decreasing productivity.

There is room to mitigate the negative effects of human capital accumulation and productivity. In addition, demand decline due to the absolute population decline is unavoidable.

Similarly, Kim suggested that in terms of socio-economic impacts of aging, the financial burdens of the declining production population (labor shortage). And the adverse impact on the asset market will become a major issue (You & Lim, 2012)

In other words, the population prospect of the problem in the socio-economic context of depopulation is as follows.

First, the labor shortage phenomenon will become reality. In the case of Korea, the labor force is expected to be 2.8 million short from 2021 to 2030. This figure is based on the assumption that the working age population will decrease from 2017 due to the low fertility rate and the current economic activity participation rate.

Next, the era of 'one-to-one support' is coming. This means 100 working age population support 80 aged people over 65 years old. Population aging affects the regional economic growth structure. Production is determined by factors such as labor, capital input, and technological progress, but population decline due to low fertility and aging and outflow into the cities of young people increase the proportion of the aged population in the local population, affecting regional gross output.

Due to the aging of the population, the industrial structure is being reorganized into a city center, and the gap between cities and regions is widened. The increase in the ratio of regional factors indicates that the regional industry reflecting regional specialty is driving the regional economy as the ratio of industrial structure factors decreases.

However, since regional economic growth due to regional factors is difficult to sustain due to changes in the economic environment, structural changes are needed that accompany rationalization of industrial structures.

In other words, due to the aging population, the industrial structure is being reorganized mainly in large cities, and the regional economic growth structure is shifting from industrial structure factors to regional factors.

The U.S case

The population of U.S has increased for long time, but the proportion of the elderly population is expected to increase. The federal Census Bureau predicted that by 2035 the number of 65-year-old would increase to 78 million, surpassing the age of 18 (76.4 million) for the first time in history. (2018).

The South Korea case

In Korea, the proportion of the elderly population is expected to increase, leading to an aging society in 2017 and an aging society in 2026. By 2060, four people per 10 people are expected to enter the era of "one-to-one support," in which 80 elderly people are supported by an aged population of 100 people.

Specifically, the proportion of elderly people will increase from 11.8% in 2012 to 32.3% in 2040 → 40.1% in 2060, and the elderly support ratio (number of elderly people per 100 people) will increase from 16.1 in 2012 to 57.6 in 2040 → 80.6 in 2060 It will grow.

On the other hand, the changes in the population structure due to low fertility and aging are rapidly increasing demand for welfare expenditure of local governments, while decreasing the number of local taxes that are highly dependent on transaction taxation.

As a result, low fertility and aging are expected to play a decisive role in threatening the sustainability of local finance (Park, 2015).

Creating a Cycle of Local Economic Downturn

The decline in the local population is not only a decline in the population itself, but also leads to a decline in consumption, jobs, income and demand for residential living services in the region, resulting in a vicious circle of the local economic downturn and collapse.

This problem could become very serious (Ahn, 2018). In other words, it is expected to fix the life desert in the province because of the decrease in population.

According to estimates based on the accessibility of six living infrastructures such as schools and convenience stores, vulnerable areas for access to living infrastructures are expected to increase slightly from 5.77% in 2015 to 5.95% in 2040.

Similarly, the decrease in school-age population due to low fertility and aging make the total number of closed schools in Korea has increased steadily from 3,438 in 2011 to 3,678 in 2016. In addition, the ratio of vacant houses among all houses has increased from 4.7% in 2000 to 7.0% in 2015, It corresponds to empty house.

Economically the shrinking of urban populations indicates a changing of economic and planning conditions of a city. Cities begin to 'shrink' from economic decline, usually resulting from war, debt, or lack of production and work force.

Population decline affects a large number of communities; both communities that are far removed from and deep within large urban centers. These communities usually consist of native people and long-term residents, so the initial population is not large. The outflow of people is then detrimental to the production potential and quality of life in these regions, and a decline in employment and productivity ensues.

Social and infrastructural Shrinking cities experience dramatic social changes due to fertility decline, changes in life expectancy, population aging, and household structure. Another reason for this shift is job-driven migration. This causes different household demands, posing a challenge to the urban housing market and the development of new land or urban planning. A decline in population does not inspire confidence in a city, and often deteriorates municipal morale.

Coupled with a weak economy, the city and its infrastructure begin to deteriorate from lack of upkeep from citizens. Politically Historically, shrinking cities have been a taboo topic in politics. Representatives ignored the problem and refused to deal with it, leading many to believe it was not a real problem. Today, urban shrinkage is an acknowledged issue, with many urban planning firms working together to strategize how to combat the implications that affect all dimensions of daily life.

Change of national spatial structure

The decrease in population and the change in demographic structure due to low birth rate and aging lead to changes in national space. While the population in the metropolitan area, metropolitan cities, and surrounding areas continues to increase, spatial polarization of the population distribution, which decreases in population, occurs in most towns and villages.

It shows the trend of expanding the metropolitan area as the area of increasing population moves from the metropolitan area to the cities and counties adjacent to the metropolitan area. Globalization progresses due to the movement of the population from the inside of the big city to the surrounding area.

There is a study that structured the process of population change being the cause of economic and social phenomena and the resultant process (Shin, 2015; Isserman, 1986). Shin(2015) explained the result of population change in a society through population factors (birth, death, and population movement), and explained the relationship between the changed population and population structure that affects society again.

Isserman (1986) explained the relationship between population growth and the economy in terms of supply and demand, where population growth determines employment and unemployment as well as increase in labor, goods and services, while population decline, on the contrary, explains the relationship between labor, goods and service demand decline and population migration and childbirth.

There are also studies focusing on the interaction between population change and urban decline and urban decline in public facilities and services (Kakay Yusuke, 2016; Lee Hee-yeon, 2013; Chungbuk Development Institute, 2010; Choi Gil-soo, 2014; Choi Jin-ho, 2011; Wiechmann and Pallagst, 2012).

Choi(2011) explained that the living environment is worsened because the urban services necessary for daily life such as education, medical care, and culture are not smoothly supplied in the underpopulated area affected by the decrease in population and the change of population structure.

The school integration and abandonment due to the decrease of youth is likely to be concentrated in rural areas with low fertility rates, and the deterioration of educational conditions has argued that the population outflow phenomenon is accelerated.

This(2013) explained that the deterioration of service quality due to the decline in demand and the deterioration of living convenience facilities may cause the population transfer of young people.

Present policies and public services to reverse depopulation:

The U.S. and Korean Case

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of things that they tried proper response to their demographic problem. In the U.S, most of policies related to birthrate have accepted in terms of individual and personal area. Instead the development policies have developed. In Korea, the government tried to make policies directly to the birth rate. At the same time, South Korea tried to develop the local policies.

The U.S. Case

Population policies through birth in the United States have been conducted primarily to influence the distribution of races and the economic depression due to immigration effects, family formation during the war, and family size.

Although the fertility rate in the United States has been lower than in the past, the level of two or more people has remained stable for the past several decades, immigrants have been introduced on a large scale compared to other OECD countries and their births have increased.

However, the policies related to marriage, childbirth and childcare in the United States have been carried out on low - income families who are not self - sustaining, as part of poverty eradication policies or child welfare policies.

This is because, since the early days of the United States, it has been influenced by the British tradition, so that each family is regarded as a private area of childbirth and child care, allowing families to operate independently and minimizing policy intervention at the national level (Joe & Kim, 2008).

Meanwhile, Youngstown, Ohio, the first city in the United States to incorporate smart decline policies into its city plans, has also taken a long time to adopt urban planning and set up a city plan to respond. In 1977, the number of residents declined from 170,000 to 64,000 (as of 2016) due to the relocation and closure of steel mills.

However, as in other cities, Youngstown's policymakers have been building new growth models they can not abandon the belief that ‘we can do it. However, in 2010, the city plans to abandon the key to new growth by pursuing vacant land management aimed at maintaining the current population size and pursuing a smart reduction policy that focuses on the quality of life of existing citizens.

Due to this change in the planning trend, the city has maintained a population of about 67,000 from 2005, when the 2010 Basic Plan was announced(2013). According to Pallagst et.al, It is shown that only when the basic plan for reduction is prepared, it is possible to control the pace of reduction, and it can cope with the problem of the quality of life of the remaining citizens(2017).

The American model is an example of maintaining the fertility rate through immigration policy. The recent fertility rate in the United States is 2.2 to 2.4, which is twice that of Korea.

However, there is a hidden concern in the United States in that the fertility rate of Caucasians immigrating from Asia, Africa, and South America is high, and that the white birth rate is below 1.0. By 2050, there is an estimate by the United Nations that in the United States, the ratio of white people to colored people will be 49% to 51%, and that the majority will be colored.

The following are the typical strategies to reduce the size of the market.

Cost sharing through wide cooperation: This strategy allows to save the budget. The hope is that by doing this, people will come to the region and in turn stay in the area, thus reducing population decline.

Consolidation of the ward and reduction of the urban area: This strategy allows to concentrate the city.

Prevention of dispersion of settlement area, promotion of accumulation, establishment of urban growth zone

The Korea Case

In 2005, the Korean government enacted the Basic Act on Low Fertility and Aging Society, established and implemented the Basic Plan for the 1st and 2nd Low Fertility and Aging Societies in 2006 and 2011, respectively, and established the 3rd Basic Plan in 2016. In the third low birthrate and aged society basic plan, six promotion strategies for low fertility and aged society are presented as the main promotion strategies.

Population cliff crisis is basically caused by low fertility and aging. The need for a focus on social and welfare-based response strategies in the basic plan is fully recognized - but the seriousness of the effects of low fertility and aging is further strengthened by taking into account the economic and industrial sector Needed.

Present government organization related depopulation

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of things that the functions are scattered. In the U.S, the development related organization are developed, on the other hand, South Korea have control tower in each section ( low birthrate, local recess)

The U.S. Case

In America, it looks that there is no control tower to take charge directly to adjust the public service on depopulation, urban shrinking, and rural flight. At the national level, the related functions are scattered.

The federal dimension is as follows.

No control tower related to depopulation function

Social welfare (related low birthrate) : Department of Health and Human services (HHS), Department of Labor (DOL)

Shrinking city : Department of Housing and Urban Development(HUD)

Local development :

Development of Agric-culture (USDA) >National -Rural Business-Cooperative Service (RBS), Rural Housing Service (RHS), Rural Utilities Service (RUS)

Statistic Analysis and Reserch :
Center for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)

The local level is as follows.

HHS is working closely with state and local governments, and many services operated by HHS funds are being provided at the local level by state and local agencies or through the support of private organizations.

The HHS program is conducted in 11 operating divisions, which consist of eight US Public Health Services and three Human Services Agencies.(Jung, 2017)

It looks that HUD have no special regional service delivery system. With public assistance absent or fast fading at all levels of government, policy frameworks have turned to regional and macro-regional collaborations of public, private, and non-profit sectors not only for tackling the problems of shrinking cities and suburbs, but also for confronting regional and global competitiveness(Weiman, 2015)

The Korea Case

In South Korea, the federal dimension is as follows.

No control tower related to whole depopulation function

Shrinking city : Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs

Local development : Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. The local development committee is responsible for the overall coordination function, and there are 263 projects in 21 ministries of the government

Statistic Analysis and Research : Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs

Social welfare (related low birthrate) :

There are a variety of government agencies performing tasks related to low fertility and aging, and the work is very complicated. As of 2016, there are 263 projects in 21 government ministries.

Low Fertility Aging Society Committee is on charge of the control tower of policy area of low birth rate and aging.

In the name of resolving the low birth rate problem, only the national budget from 2006 to 2018 is 144.2 trillion won ('Table 1').

Table. 2. Financial Investment Status of the 1st to 3rd Basic Plan for Low Birth and Aged Society.                            (Unit: trillion won)

Year		low fertility	Aging	Growth	Total
The 1st Basic Plan (2006~2010)	2006	2.1	1.3	1.1	4.5
	2007	3.1	1.6	1.3	5.9
	2008	3.8	3.2	1.4	8.4
	2009	4.8	4.7	1.3	11.0
	2010	5.9	5.1	1.1	12.4
	total	19.7	15.9	6.7	42.2
The 2nd Basic Plan (2006~2010)	2011	7.4	5.5	1.5	14.4
	2012	11.0	6.4	1.5	18.9
	2013	13.5	6.3	1.7	21.5
	2014	13.9	9.7	1.9	25.5
	2015	14.7	12.90	2.0	29.6
	total	60.5	40.8	8.6	109.9
The 3rd Basic Plan (2006~2010)	2016	20.5	14.1	-	34.6
	2017	21.7	15.6	-	37.3
	2018	21.8	16.6	-	38.4
	2019	22.0	20.6	-	42.6
	2020	22.4	22.2	-	44.6
	total	108.4	89.1	-	197.5
total		188.6	145.8	15.3	349.6

※ Source: The Government of the Republic of Korea (2016), 'The 3rd Basic Plan for Low Fertility and Aged Society in 2016-2020'.

The local level is as follows.

The organizational forms responsible for depopulation work by local governments appeared to be in charge of various departments, and the areas covered by single departments are rare.

In particular, in the case of the military area, it was found that there was no single department or no division (Park, 2018).

The local government response policy focuses its role on the auxiliary performance of the central government policy.

The scope and contents of the policy are limited, and there are considerable limitations in finding local customized specialization policies reflecting local conditions and characteristics.

In the case of local governments' own projects, more than half of the projects (69.4%) are promoted as low birth rate measures such as pregnancy, childbirth, health, and childcare support policies.

This is extremely one-dimensional in that it focuses only on the natural increase of the population.

Table. 3. Current status of budgets by type of local government projects

(units: 100 million won)

Year	low fertility		Aging		Growth		Total
	budget	%	budget	%	budget	%
2014	32,334	77.0	8,238	19.6	1,401	3.3	41,973
2015	26,622	70.2	10,843	28.6	470	1.2	37.935
2016	27,813	69.4	11,793	29.4	474	1.2	40,080

Key Lessons Learned from the U.S.-Korea Comparison

In this section, we tried to explore the key lessons for Korea learns from U.S and Korea comparisons This paper is going to discuss the Korean case and giving recommendations for it.

There would be good implications for comparing Korea, a welfare state that is in a period of severe population decline, and the US, a liberal welfare state that has not reached the dilemma of declining population.

Korea Needs Multiple Solutions to Address its Population Decline Problem

The issue of population decline in South Korea is multifaceted. Thus, multiple solutions are needed:

Welfare System Reforms:

Demand for new welfare services due to aging population structure, increase in poverty elderly people, supply of elderly housing, problem of elderly caring for the elderly, and reduction of economic population due to declining fertility rate are expected.

Designs of the policy project :

It is doubtful whether the designs of the policy project to cope with the depopulation era and the administrative structure required have been well established. There are various government agencies in Korea that are involved in low birthrate and aging in the Korean government.

Basically, it has a provider-oriented administrative service delivery system of the administrative agency, which reflects the institutional legacy of complex past bureaucracy.

However, in order to improve the service quality in the aging society with low fertility rate, it is required to reorganize the service delivery system into a system that links the service delivery system centered on the citizen.

Korea must focus on devising policies to eliminate the obstacles in the areas of cost, services and infrastructure surrounding pregnancy and childbirth and to improve the quality of pregnancy and childbirth.

In particular, we look at the environmental conditions of pregnancy, childbirth, postpartum cooking, and postpartum care, and expand infrastructure and expand various service support in the public domain without relying on the private sector, so that we can choose according to the economic and environmental conditions of policy targets. You should.

In order to prepare effective measures, on the one hand, it is necessary to provide a universal support policy by applying support criteria irrespective of income to those who want to conceive and give birth. We need to provide customized support policies that take into account the risk factors.

In addition, through the spread and creation of a gender equal pregnancy and childbirth culture, the entire process leading to pregnancy, childbirth, and postpartum care must be made into a happy birth where women and families participate and experience together.

Rural social service :

Similarly, the problems of rural social welfare service delivery system are as follows: service accessibility, fragmentation, health and welfare, education, employment, and culture. and service provision that does not reflect the characteristics of 'people'.

City policy :

Depopulation suggests various challenges for the city. First, there are problems with physical facilities. Shrinking city is a city where the stock of physical facilities and demand for it do not match. Facilities once used by many people are neglected or discarded as the number of visitors decreases.

Housing, office buildings, parks, commercial facilities, etc., and if these facilities are left for a long time, the surrounding area will be negatively affected.

Second, it is impossible to keep the amount of services such as welfare, transportation, and education as before(Choi, 2017) It is necessary to plan a smart scaled city regeneration that is suitable for regional characteristics (Hollander, J and Nemeth J, 2011: 365).

In order to resolve the disparity in population in the national territory space and distribute the population concentration in the metropolitan area, it is necessary to build a network city that connects regional metropolitan cities, innovative cities, and small and medium-sized cities with surrounding areas.

In small and medium-sized cities, which are declining due to population decline and aging, three to five regions are united and share central functions such as high-level services and economics and education

It is necessary to introduce a wide-ranging spatial planning system to effectively respond to changes in the conditions of regionalization and population reduction.

Control tower :

In the case of regional development policies, there is an inefficient promotion system due to the promotion of competitive regional development policies by ministries. As of 2016, there are 263 projects in 21 ministries of the government. Inefficient project system and inefficient role of control tower of regional development committee are problematic.

It is necessary to establish direction of future regional development policy to promote integrated and cooperative regional development policy, strengthen link between regional policy and spatial policy (Choi, 2017).

That is, Establishing direction for future regional development policy to promote integrated and cooperative regional development policy, strengthen link between regional policy and spatial policy

Expansion-oriented development :

It has entered a period of low population and economic growth. As discussed earlier, population is projected to decline to the peak of 2030. When the population grew and the economy grew, expansion-oriented development and growth-type regional development policies were important. Developing residential land and new towns, increasing supply of water and sewage, and establishing and expanding roads.

However, as the total population is expected to decline and population-declining regions are increasing by region, we cannot continue to pursue the expansion and development-oriented regional development policies of the past. In a time when the population is declining and the economy is slowing down, local development policies must be changed accordingly.

Monolithic centralized response :

The existing approaches, such as a monolithic centralized response and a population-based plan, are fundamentally limited to responding to population declines.

As a result, it is necessary to establish a new response strategy that can respond to the population decrease while simultaneously softening the population decrease

Collaboration with Private sector

The government's or local government's efforts alone are not showing that the policy of eradication of demographics will not work. In other words, the success depends on how the private infrastructure, such as local companies, and the participation of the residents, such as the participation of the residents, and how the residents, residents, and organizations operate.

In particular, Choi (2014) mentioned that it is necessary to share common efforts and responsibilities through the network of various actors in the community, and to improve the effectiveness of the policy through participation of the private sector. Many local governments enacted and operated ordinances on low fertility and aging, but the provisions that guarantee the participation of private social organizations are difficult to find, emphasizing the importance of the role of local governments in order to revitalize the private sector.

What kind of public service is needed?

Changes in the demographic structure bring new administrative demand.

Childbirth and care support:

In order to maintain and manage the appropriate population, countermeasures such as childbirth and childcare support projects, job-family compatibility, new forms of marriage and cohabitation, coordination of child custody, and employment and income stabilization of women are expected.

The low birth rate policy should ultimately be aimed at "creating a society where individuals can choose to have children as much as they can and support them."

In the end, the fertility rate needs to have a policy of high degree of youth's sensibility, and it is necessary to have a policy that can satisfy marriage, reasonable real estate prices, and guarantee a stable job quality.

The population response policy should be set in the direction of broadening inclusiveness, such as changing the values of gender equality in housing support for working hours.

On the other hand, In general, the utility value for tax benefits and medical expenses, which have the characteristics of economic support for marriage and childbirth, was high, and the utility value for pregnancy-related leave systems such as fertility leave was low.

In addition, the majority of the groups showed a low level of utility in the social care expansion task for pregnant women, indicating that the preference for childbirth support in the cost support method was higher than in the campaign policy task.

Next, in the women's group, the unemployed and pre-children's pre-birth group had the highest utility for the expansion of the daycare center, and the women's employment before the second child's birth chose to support childcare facilities.

It was found that female unemployed people prefer to support the cost of using childcare facilities regardless of their life cycle. Males had the highest utility value for the expansion of daycare centers for both employed and unemployed.

In conclusion, pre-marriage people prefers detailed policy tasks related to job security, such as 'conversion of non-regular workers to regular workers', and after marriage, prefers a system that supports work-family balance, such as the 'parental leave system'.

Labor market improvement:

In order to secure a new labor force, it is necessary to respond to the labor sector, such as sharing roles between robots and humans, utilizing the female labor force, and utilizing the old population.

`	In order to secure the quality of life of the elderly population, it is required to support social welfare services such as countermeasures against geriatric diseases, conflicts between generations about sharing welfare expenses, social safety nets for elderly people living alone (An Jong Bum, Yoo Hong Il et al., 2010).

The Population Response Policy seeks to create an environment where couples can choose to give birth by focusing on finding the right to work, parenting, and work rights for individual workers rather than increasing or decreasing the fertility rate.

The paradigm of Korea's 2018 low birth rate and aging society road-map reflects this trend(OECD). The main working hours in Korea are average hours, far above the national average.

Therefore, it is necessary to design welfare systems related to childbirth response policies that improve individual working hours and improve the quality of life at an appropriate level.

Next, depending on the life cycle stage, prior to marriage, detailed policy tasks related to job security, such as 'conversion of non-regular workers to regular workers', and after marriage, prefer a system that supports work-family balance, such as the 'parental leave system'.

Taking into account the preferences of detailed policy tasks in the field of employment of female and unemployed workers, job security is provided for unemployed people who do not have a job before marriage and those who are married who are looking for a job, securing employment stability for unemployed people before marriage, and discontinuing career due to childbirth for married employees. Reinforcement of fear and strengthening of parental leave systems and career support to ensure employment and career retention are required.

In the pre-marriage stage for men, both the employed and the unemployed prefer 'to guarantee employment stability for the first five years of life'. In other words, regardless of the employment status, unmarried men have a greater need for jobs with guaranteed employment security.

Human services:

Various “human services” have been socially developed to meet human needs (Burger & Youkeles, 2004: 2-3). For example, human services of food, residential space, and medical services are provided to meet the physiological needs required for human survival.

Human services such as police, courts, and prisons have been developed for safety needs. And for the sense of belonging and affection, psychological illness, alcoholism caused by social maladjustment of human beings, and human service that provides social space to lonely seniors are required.

Finally, human services of education and vocational training are provided for the respect and self-fulfillment needs.11 In terms of human services over the life-cycle, Human services need to be reviewed. In this way, human services are basically integrated services.

On the other hand, it has been suggested that the low birth rate policy should not be aimed at increasing or decreasing fertility rates.

This is because population adjustment policies that encourage childbirth can achieve short-term results, but are not sustainable. The population adjustment policy should be set in the direction of broadening the choices in nurturing marriage.

Female unemployed people had high preference for charter and housing purchase funding regardless of their life cycle, and male unemployed people preferred to expand public housing for newlyweds. Male and female workers had the same preference pattern for each life cycle. They preferred to expand the supply of public housing before marriage, expand the pre-marriage and housing purchase funding before the birth of the first child, and expand the supply of private rental housing in the city center to households of two or more children before the birth of the second child. This can be seen as a combination of burden on housing and preference changes according to events of marriage, childbirth and parenting.

In other words, before marriage, he preferred to expand the supply of public housing due to the burden of providing housing, and before the birth of his first child, he preferred to provide charter and purchase funds for a residential space considering convenience and accessibility of life,

As the cost increases, it can be considered that the rental housing for two-person households is preferred, considering both stability and convenience, before competing with the housing cost.

Minimum services:

There is a need to provide a minimum service to maintain the quality of human life wherever you live in the country. In other words, it is expected that the demand for basic public services will increase as the service as life desert increases.

Changes in the structure and system of the national land space : On the other hand, there will be an increase in the demand for a reorganization strategy in response to changes in the structure and system of the national land space due to population change. Rather than expanding residential areas to the outskirts of a metropolis, it is necessary to revitalize the city center to develop its compactness and to develop into a compact city, which is a policy direction appropriate for the aging population and low growth age. to be. It is necessary to put more budget in maintenance than in past.

The demand for space varies according to the demographic and social factors of the inhabited population, such as increase in income and aging due to economic development, so it is necessary to actively respond to these changes. For example, as income increases, demand for culture, green space, etc. increases, and aging requires a short circulation (travel distance) and accumulation of convenience facilities.

It is necessary to provide basic living infrastructure in decay and extinction areas. In other words, it is necessary to supply the basic living infrastructure in the decay area inside the city and in the areas of extinction due to population decline.

The living infrastructure is an essential facility for residents to promote daily living convenience and maintain and improve a certain level of quality of life. Even if the population decreases, support to prevent the occurrence of blind spots for essential basic infrastructure, such as transportation, medical care, and educational facilities.

It is necessary to identify the public service sector and standards suitable for the size of the region, demographic composition, spatial characteristics, etc. and set the National Minimum that can establish the Local Optimum for each region.

Demand for Population Change by Age Group

In the budgeting of local governments, it is necessary to predict demand according to detailed population changes by age group. In case of the area, it is judged that the proportion of education budget is reduced considering the changes of low birth rate and specific age group (e.g.20-39 years old).

However, if the case area is divided into detailed age groups, it is necessary to consider the demand for education because it is a consumer city with a high proportion of 40s and 10s.

In addition, it is necessary to reflect the increase of 65~74 years old, the new production and consumption age, in the budget of lifelong and vocational education.

‘Policy package proposal by group’.

In the same context, Kim(2017) suggested ‘Policy package proposal by group’. The policy packages suitable for each group of each life cycle were organized and suggested.

It is expected that the effectiveness of the childbirth policy will be improved when detailed policy tasks for each area are linked and promoted in a package.

1) Group before marriage :

Female employed	(Policy Goal) Support for the cost of getting married and stabilizing employment (Priority ranking) Maternity policy-Employment policy-Parenting policy
	Tax benefits for marriage and childbirth + Converting non-regular workers to regular workers+ Work Daycare + After school +
Female unemployed	(Policy Goal) Alleviate the cost of marriage and stabilize employment (Priority ranking in policy area) Maternity policy-Employment policy-Education policy
	Tax benefits for marriage and childbirth + First 5-year job guarantee + After school + Childcare facility cost support
Male employed	(Policy Goal) Employment stabilization and ease of marriage cost burden (Priority ranking in policy area) Employment Policy-Maternity Policy-Residence Policy
	First 5-year job guarantee + Tax benefits for marriage and childbirth + Work Daycare + Charter and housing purchase support + After school
Male unemployed	(Policy Goal) Employment stabilization and ease of marriage cost burden (Priority ranking in policy area) Employment Policy-Maternity Policy-Parenting Policy
	First 5-year job guarantee+Tax benefits for marriage and childbirth + Work Daycare + After school + Charter and housing purchase support

2) Group before the birth of the first child after marriage

Female employed	(Policy Goal) Maintaining the career of married women who work, alleviating the burden of childcare expenses, and supporting childcare (Priority ranking in policy area) Employment Policy-Maternity Policy-Parenting Policy
	Strengthening the parental leave system + Support for pregnancy and childbirth medical expenses + Work Daycare + After school + Charter and housing purchase support
Female unemployed	(Policy Goal) Easing the burden of childcare costs and improving the quality of short-term jobs (Priority ranking in policy area) Maternity policy-Employment policy-Parenting policy
	Support for pregnancy and childbirth medical expenses + Consolidation of part-time jobs+ Charter and housing purchase support + Childcare facility cost support + After school
Male employed	(Policy Goal) Easing the burden of childcare costs and improving the quality of short-term jobs (Priority ranking in policy area) Employment Policy-Maternity Policy-Residence Policy
	Strengthening the parental leave system + Tax benefits for marriage and childbirth + Long-term rental public housing supply + Work Daycare + After school

3) Group before the birth of the second child

Female employed	(Policy Goal) Strengthen parental leave to maintain a career, ease burden of childbirth and childcare expenses (Priority ranking in policy area) Employment Policy-Maternity Policy-Parenting Policy
	Strengthening the parental leave system + Support for pregnancy and childbirth medical expenses + Childcare facility cost support + After school + City-owned private rental housing with 2 or more children
Female unemployed	(Policy Goal) Enhancement of short-term job quality, ease of burden on maternity and private education expenses (Priority ranking in policy area) Employment Policy-Maternity Policy-Education Policy
	Consolidation of part-time jobs + Support for pregnancy and childbirth medical expenses + After school + Childcare facility cost support + Charter and housing purchase support
Male employed	(Policy Goal) Strengthen parental leave to maintain a career, ease burden of childbirth and childcare expenses (Priority ranking in policy area) Employment Policy-Maternity Policy-Parenting Policy
	Strengthening the parental leave system + Tax benefits for marriage and childbirth + Work Daycare Enhancement of school class + Long-term rental public housing supply

Strategy to innovate on government organization and public service delivery system.

As the need for integration and collaboration of human service delivery systems is required, the concept of the umbrella agency, which integrates various functions related to human services, is emphasized. Integrated service delivery organizations are capable of various forms of cooperation. Low-level coalition, medium-level partnerships, and high-level joint ventures are possible.

In other words, it is necessary to review the concept of the umbrella agency and examine the possibility of service linkage and integration among the organizations that provide human services beyond these concepts, in view of the institutional approach of the human service delivery system(Kim, 2012)

Aging and ultra-aging areas due to population decline will accept reality as a pre-determined fact

▲ How to maintain necessary services for life such as medical, health, transportation, and education

▲ How to repair infrastructure such as roads, bridges, architecture, and energy

▲ How to develop local industries, employment, corporate attraction, and urban regeneration

▲ Local communities, residents' associations (committees), lifelong education centers, and various public and private organizations, organizations, and organizations respond to regional characteristics and changing future situations. It is necessary to know how to build a local ecosystem.

Each government department and local government can also actively utilize the private infrastructure, especially the “resident autonomous infrastructure,” to increase the effectiveness of the policy.

In addition, the government and local governments need to re-implement the strategy of administrative and financial support in order to ensure that the resident autonomous body, which is a hub that actively connects and operates the resident autonomous infrastructure in the civil society area, fulfills its role.

Each region needs to build a local ecosystem by integrating with local residents' organizations by selecting the one that fits the regional characteristics and circumstances, considering the decrease and increase in population among various models.

In addition, their representative organization, the self-governing body, should be redesigned to fit the region.

Considering population reduction (low birth rate, aging population, population movement) is essential in redesigning the local government. This is because if the social system of the region cannot maintain the conventional level due to the population cliff, the residents may experience various inconveniences in life, or the function of the region may deteriorate and the residents cannot maintain a certain standard of living.

It is an area where residents cannot enjoy basic life and public services on time because the functions of the region are not properly performed, or because the social infrastructure is not properly built so that residents cannot enjoy basic living standards.

In these areas, the problem of young people's outflow into the metropolitan area is more serious than the problem of low birth rate, and the elderly population is also decreasing, which is a cause of local extinction. It should be designed to supplement the administration of the local self-governing body in order to provide public services for living to the residents, and to stop and decrease the population so that the region does not disappear, while focusing on and increasing the population.

On the other hand, the forms of resident autonomous bodies should be different depending on the core city, compressed city (compact city), base city, and neighboring city. Of local autonomous entities. The role should be weighted to increase population while preparing for population decline.

In summary, what matters is how to build and utilize private infrastructure such as local businesses and residents' self-government infrastructure. However, the promotion of projects (policies) to prepare for the disappearance of local governments requires much more energy than the government and local governments.

This is because the resident autonomous body (or resident council) must solve the very difficult and difficult problem of “eliciting residents' consensus” above all when attempting to carry out projects to prepare for population decline.

Therefore, the role of the local autonomous entity is very important. In other words, it is necessary to provide benefits to local residents 'organizations, coordinate opinions among the residents' organizations, and to focus their capabilities on the development of the community and the quality of life of the residents.

As a result, not only the resident organization, but the local government, which is the center of the resident autonomous infrastructure, must attract a lot of local talent. This is because talent is the driving force behind regional competitiveness. So how to nurture a younger generation and create an environment in which they can work is a very important task for local adults and leaders.

Recommendation for Korea

From the previous section, we have developed a more systematic package by bundling it into short-term and long-term ones.

The declining population due to low fertility, aging, and the resulting demographic change, among others, is a global phenomenon that neither the United States nor Korea can avoid.

If we look only numerically, urban population decline is no longer an exception. Urban population decline is a problem that needs to be coped with and adapts partly to natural urban changes. If the trend cannot be reversed and the outcome of the trend is negative, mitigating the trend rather than reversing it and minimizing the negative impact will be the correct response.

Population decline is now an irreversible structural variable, and the policy towards shrinking cities begins with a departure from the view that urban decline is a failure of urban policy. There are various causes of population decline, and many of them are inevitable.

The question is how to respond to changes in conditions, to secure the quality of life of the people, and to prevent further population decline and urban infiltration.
Thus, one of the key roles the government should play in the era of declining population is to design policies and systems to strategically utilize the declining population in a systematic manner.

Below we highlight key policies areas that the government could address in the short- and long-term:

Short-term Policy Recommendations

Directions :

the population should be dispersed through the development of local areas and the activation of shrinking cities. Urban policy in the era of declining population should focus on urban regeneration and community revitalization, not on new development(David, 2017)

Paradigm shift

In order to promote marriage through paradigm shift, we are taking comprehensive measures in addition to supporting the cost of home care and institutional childcare fees, such as measures against non-marriage and marriage, and the importance of parent education.

Meanwhile, the support for male child care participation is also increasing due to the increase in female participation in economic activities and the change in the value of equal role in the home of male and female.

Typically, it is a policy that promotes male parental leave or reminds the importance of father's childcare in parent education as a social interest. It is aware that various erroneous matters arise when women are alone in raising children, and husband's participation in parenting is not a choice but a necessity.

Therefore, when the policy of expanding male parental leave and flexible work system are actively introduced and the policy of supporting the actual male child rearing in the home is activated, the culture of nurturing with the couple can be created.

Federal support is also needed :

If the future population decline becomes a major issue of urban policy, it is necessary to establish a system to support this at the national level.

Most national support policies today focus on new development and new business. This support policy encourages the overpopulation of local governments and the excessive development of new businesses.

Local governments cannot but continue to pursue new development projects in order to obtain national support. Now we need to provide support to reverse this practice.

A wide-area population policy is needed. If individual population policies are implemented in each city, county, and district, duplicate and similar business investments may occur. It is more convenient for citizens to use facilities and programs in the scope of living than for administrative districts.

Therefore, it is necessary to analyze vulnerable areas on a wide-area basis and, if possible, increase efficiency through joint investment or joint use.

In particular, this need is even greater in areas with poor population density in terms of securing economies of scale.

The improvement of the system needed in the region should be actively suggested in the center. For example, the autonomous authority of the local government is determined based on the number of populations, so local governments have no choice but to be sensitive to maintaining the population and push for excessive policies.

Therefore, it is necessary to diversify the criteria for determining the right to self-governance not only by population, but also by administrative demand, regional symbolism, industrial economy, and health and welfare conditions.

Local grant tax was also an important criterion, but it can be said that it was timely to change the system to grant grant tax more to regions with severe aging (An, 2018).

Importance of local government roles

Park (2017) argued that in order to overcome the population decline, the government should consider the birth and childcare support policies and regional space policies comprehensively, and that special measures to support local governments seeking population policies in various ways in local units are needed.

We will reorganize the regional development policy to reflect the population decline and population structure change, and propose a plan to reorganize the regional development policy promotion system into a local government-led system in planning, business, and finance.

Lee (2017) argued that the central government should integrate and coordinate the projects, but the central government should integrate the projects and expand the autonomy of the provinces.

In areas where government roles are unnecessary, it is necessary to strengthen the effectiveness by actively utilizing the private capabilities, and to prepare regional development policies that encourage local governments to identify the population decline problem and to prescribe themselves through objective population data analysis.

urban services need to be readjusted.:

It is impossible to keep the amount of services such as welfare, transportation, and education as before. There is a need to restructure the service so that the service can be efficiently supplied to the right place in accordance with the decreasing population and age.

Promotion of regional regeneration in accordance with regional characteristics

It is necessary to promote the regeneration of the existing downtown areas where the decline occurs due to the construction of innovative cities along with the urban regeneration of the declining areas in the big cities, and tailored regeneration projects tailored to the situation of local small and medium-sized cities.

In addition, the cause of population decline and the decline in rural areas is different from that of urban areas, so regional regeneration appropriate to the characteristics of rural areas should be promoted.

New vision :

The vision of a city that meets population decline should be newly established. This is invisible to physical facilities or urban services, but can have a more significant impact in the long run. Urban governments and citizens must share their future-oriented visions, while meeting existing urban growth-oriented practices and meeting the conditions of a densely populated city(Choi, 2017).

Strengthening compressed regional regeneration

For efficient use of public facilities and infrastructure due to low birth rate and aging, the concept of compressed development needs to be actively reflected in spatial planning.

In most of the areas where the population is declining, problems of cavitation in the downtown area, expansion to the outskirts of urban facilities, and increase in low-use and unused land occur, so it is necessary to promote efficient and intensive utilization of space.

Urban Planning and Improvement in the Age of the decrease in population

Many researchers suggested that cities in the age of population decline should create cities where the elderly can live and have living environment facilities in the community where the elderly live routinely.

Especially, the diffusion type urban structure characterized by suburban development is argued to be an inefficient structure for providing traffic, medical care, shopping, and administrative services in the era of population decline and aging due to the aging of infrastructure and urban structure built on the premise of the continuation of growth and the inconsistency with the demand of industrial structure upgrading era.

In addition, Kim(2010) suggested that for the development of small and medium-sized cities in the region, it is necessary to strategically arrange the demand for new housing, commercial and business facilities, and the demand for public facilities such as cultural welfare, and to arrange residential, commercial and public facilities and induce re-integration around the city center by making the most of the existing city center.

In the study of "Urban Policy Tasks in the Age of Population Decreasing", Kwon (2011) suggested that housing policy in the era of low birthrate and aging should be organically linked to urban functions, not just apartment and office reconstruction.

In addition, it is argued that housing policies should be implemented focusing on improving housing performance including diversification of housing supply and housing complex construction techniques that share various residential values including rural housing complexes and ecological communities, and safe housing systems.

Restructuring the urban functions:

It is necessary for the government to support the policy of effectively restructuring the urban functions in response to the decrease in population, such as reduction of land use, integration and adjustment of functions, and recycling of idle facilities.

This is because the detailed promotion tasks and project contents of the basic plan include not only policies for raising the number of births, but also welfare policies and social policies that have been pursued.

In other words, when reviewing detailed promotion tasks, there are many cases where the government's existing projects in social policy are packaged as low birth rate measures. This mix is because there are various perspectives on the factors and solutions to the low birth rate problem.

There are various spectrum, ranging from the point of view of reducing birth numbers and promoting childbirth and raising the number of births as policy outcomes, to the position of trying to change the social structure to solve the underlying cause of low birth rate.

If the central government enacts relevant laws and the local governments prepare the plans in accordance with the law, it is possible to think about the system to approve and support the central government again(David, 2017)

In addition, tn the United State, from a policy standpoint, investments in rural infrastructure and other community development activities must be carefully targeted for success. There are at least three possible policy avenues for addressing the prospect of rural depopulation, and each has its political challenges:

Now, it is necessary to develop a differentiated urban and regional development policy that reflects regional characteristics, not urban development or development on the premise of an accessible population. In particular, an approach to the concept of a miniaturized city is also needed for areas where the population is decreasing. It is necessary to improve accessibility by placing facilities that generate additional demand in areas that are relatively accessible among existing decline areas.

Reorganization of physical facilities

As mentioned, population decline poses various challenges for the city. First, there are problems with physical facilities. Reduced City is a city where the stock of physical facilities and demand for it do not match. Facilities once used by many people are neglected or discarded as the number of visitors decreases.

Housing, office buildings, parks, commercial facilities, etc., and if these facilities are left for a long time, the surrounding area will be negatively affected.

Community adaptation strategies should be pursued. In the future, if the population decreases in earnest, urban decline, increase in empty houses, and closing of schools and empty classrooms may occur. Therefore, it is necessary for the community to gather wisdom and systematically improve the use of empty houses or empty classrooms.

In addition, the administrative system and city service supply system should be operated flexibly to optimize the cost of public service supply(An, 2018).

Need a comprehensive management system for idle facilities and real estate. In order for the government to deviate from the growth-oriented planning method and to induce a plan on an appropriate scale, it is necessary to present guidelines that enable efficient use of various resources.

In other words, it is necessary to present guidelines and incentives for the government to promote compressed development through the use of idle real estate when establishing urban and regional plans.

In areas where demand has decreased due to population decline, it is desirable to increase the residents' sense through small-scale facilities in the living zone unit rather than considering the spatial equity of facility distribution in planning.

Large-scale facility investment in the type of consumption that is concerned about future consumption due to the decrease of young age group can further deepen financial deterioration.

Change the location of investment :

By diverting resources from local to regional economic growth—perhaps first in urban employment centers—with the expectation that surrounding rural communities will share the benefits from integration and economic interconnections (that is, commuting and economic spillovers) under a mostly urban umbrella.

Identify and invest strategically in rural demographic “winners,” or those places with the prospect of sustainability and future growth. Of course, whether federal or state governments should be actively picking winners and losers is a matter of considerable policy debate.

This approach is also at odds with the contemporary rural economic development strategies that sometimes target declining places with little prospect of success.

As a community, promote receptiveness to immigration. Recent immigrants can provide a demographic lifeline for fading rural communities, not just through their numbers and the higher fertility of a younger population, but also by contributing to a community’s economic, cultural, and social resources.(Lee, 2014).

A demographic window to the future and a sober forecast of continuing rural population decline in many economically depressed regions. Future rural population growth and decline clearly are deeply rooted in evolving patterns of migration, fertility, and mortality. It is past time to refocus our attention on the rural people and places left behind.

In other words, Until now, Korea's low birth rate response policy was mainly focused on encouraging childbirth and strengthening the care system. However, the region's low fertility problem requires a different approach to the central and its perspectives.

First, the region should consider moving the population. Population migration across countries appears to be immigration, but the number is small compared to the total population.

However, in the region, there are flows into and out of other regions due to reasons such as occupation, family, housing, and education.

Therefore, regional population policies should take into account population movements between regions. (An, 2018)

Sharing economy

By introducing the concept of commons, the link between the central city and the surrounding hinterland is regarded as the process of making the commons as well as the commons itself, and the capability between the central city and the neighbors of the surroundings, which are the main subjects of interest.

Considering the gap, the system should be promoted so that alliance among participating residents can be achieved. (Nam, 2019)

Long-term Policy Recommendations

Directions :

In the long term, raising the fertility rate is essential, and in the mid-term, it is necessary to resolve the population problem and the local problem.

In other words, from a long-term point of view, childbirth should approach other issues.

In other words, the population problem has a time lag between phenomenon and policy effect. That is, even if the region's low birth rate is alleviated right away, the low birth rate that has already persisted for many years has an impact on society for a long time.

For example, even if a lot of children are born now, the children become a productive population after 16 years and become an adult after 20 years, and after about 30 years, marriage and childbirth are possible. Therefore, population policy needs a proactive and long-term perspective (An, 2018).

On the other hand, there are medium too long term considerations to keep in mind in the municipality. Changes in the distribution of population and administrative district-adjustment of administrative districts according to the separation of residents' right to livelihood, consolidation of local finance to increase welfare costs, establishment of long-term funds according to the restructuring of regional spatial structures, and planning of mid-to-long-term urban strategies to reduce population are long-term · This should be considered proactively.

Simplified Subsides :

There are too many kinds of support for childbirth including subsidies. It should be simplified. The biggest problem in welfare is that there are many kinds of money, and the amount is not big. People do not know what to pay for, what someone can receive, what someone am receiving.

When someone reach 65, someone do not know what someone can get, and someone do not know exactly what someone can get if she have a baby. There is also a lot of waste of administrative power because public officials do not know well.

As of today, each federal agency should not conduct sentimental work. This is because the meaning of individual central governments' business means only financial execution. It is necessary to establish a control tower related to population reduction and to integrate and close projects scattered in individual ministries into one ministries (or a secretary of the main control functions).

Building a close care and welfare network

It is necessary to establish a compact care and welfare network that can be easily understood and accessed by consumers. It is necessary to establish a portal site so that citizens can easily identify and apply for various maternity incentive policies, care support policies, and welfare policies implemented by the government and local governments.

For this, blind spots are analyzed through big data analysis. It should be analyzed to make sure it is not there and make it easy to identify and apply through the portal site. It is pointed out that various policies are difficult to understand and approach from the citizen's point of view.

Change the overall system of the society

If Korea has maintained an expansion-oriented social system in the meantime, it is necessary to take a solid social system in the future. If an expansion-oriented policy was implemented in the city planning, housing, and housing of the economic industry, it is now necessary to change the overall system of the society in the direction of maintaining the status quo or aiming for the inside.

If Korea have maintained a social system focused on expansion, Korea should take a solid social system in the future. If an expansion-oriented policy was implemented in the city planning, housing, and housing of the economic industry, it is now necessary to change the overall system of the society in the direction of maintaining the status quo or aiming for the inside(An, 2018).

Cooperative governance :

In the depopulation and decentralization era, the efficient role sharing and cooperation system should be established between the central and local governments.

In order to enhance the effectiveness of the regional balanced development policy, it is necessary to reorganize the role allocation system of the central and local governments.

In order to enhance the effectiveness of the regional balanced development policy, the central government's inter- regional policy, Regional and regional policies that focus on the use and competitiveness of local governments, and reallocate their roles for central and local policy areas and their implementation to meet the needs of the decentralization era.

It is to strengthen the cooperation system of private, regional and government (governance). To this end, it strengthens the functions of the committee control tower by establishing and solidifying councils between corporations, civil society, regions, and central governments, and by evaluating and managing the low-birth and aged society policy budgets managed by departments.

Summary

Introduction

Nowadays there is a lot of terms related to the recent 21st century population and structure: Population-decline, Population onus, Population cliff, aging and low birthrate so on. The prevalence of new terms of this kind is a proof that demography is still important. In the similar context, the future of nations is written in their demographics.

In particular, a futurist can study national fertility rates, urbanization trends and the age structure of population groups to get a picture of a country’s long-term future. Population analysis and its policy response was one of the important tasks that governments should do. As a result, as of 2013, 102 countries are showing a keen interest in aging, and 54 countries are implementing policies to raise fertility rates (Lee at al., 2014).

There are key similarities and differences in the sources of population decline in the U.S. and South Korea. In terms of similarities, both have gone through declining birthrate and aging society.

At the same time, both have experienced greater decline in rural areas. In terms of differences, the U.S are okay in the federal level based on thing that total population are increasing, but the South Korea will experience decrease of the thtal population of the country(UN, 2017). Although differences may vary from country to country, it is better that we know that population decline is inevitable.

The aim of this paper is to compare and contrast the population decline experiences and policy responses in the U.S. and South Korean case. And from there identify key lessons that Korea could use to address it’s own population decline. There would be good implications for comparing Korea, a welfare state that is in a period of severe population decline, and the US, a liberal welfare state that has not reached the dilemma of declining population.

This study relies mainly on the use of government and demographic data, literature review, case studies on research methods. In addition, the changes in the population structure due to low birthrate and aging will be discussed, and the future service and operation system for each country will be examined.

Key concept

Depopulation

According to Webster's Online Dictionary the A population decline (or depopulation) is a reduction in a population caused by events such as long-term demographic trends, as in sub-replacement fertility, urban decay, white flight, or rural flight, or due to violence, disease, or other catastrophes.

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of their population increased until next few decades, but the population of the South Korea will decline with rapid speed.

Aging society

An aging society refers to a country where the proportion of elderly people aged 65 or older is more than 7% of the total population as the average life expectancy and fertility rate decrease. According to the UN standards, the aging society is defined as the country or region in which the share of population aged over 65 exceeds seven percent of the whole population. In addition, more than 7% aged society, more than 14% aged society, more than 20% aged society:

Elderly population ratio

= (population over 65 years old / total population) × 100

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of their aging society are on process, but the different characteristic is about speed.

Low birthrate

According to OECD, The total fertility rate in a specific year is defined as the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates. TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is called Replacement-level fertility (UN, Population Division).

Working Age Population

From a demographic point of view, it refers to the population aged 15 to 64 who is economically viable. The OECD follows the definition of a demographic perspective. Demographic bonus refers to the potential for additional economic growth that can be obtained by increasing the labor force and consumption by temporarily increasing the proportion of the productive population (ages 15-64) in the process of demographic change in a society.

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of the fact that their working age population rate to total population is decreasing. But the U.S are still increasing the working age population, but the South Korea soon have the decreasing the working age population

Shrinking city

he criteria for defining a reduced city vary depending on the scholar or region, but the decrease in population and the increase in the abandoned structure (vacant lot) are often seen as representative signs. This is the urban areas experiencing widespread population decline and economic structural changes”(Pallagst. 2008). For example, population decline by more than 25% over 40 years (Schiling & Logan, 2008), population decline by more than 10% over 50 years or over 1% per annum (Oswalt & Rieniets, 2006) (Wiechmann & Wolff, 2013) as a collapsed city.

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of the fact that both have the shrinking cities problem. In times of declining population, cities are shrinking cities. The decline of urban population today is a very universal and global phenomenon. Many cities in the declining population experience inevitably natural population declines(Gwak, 2016) According to statistics, 13% of US cities and 54% of European cities are experiencing population decline, and this figure continues to increase (Wiechmann and Pallagst. 2012).

Rural decline

Many local areas are at risk of extinction due to population decline due to low fertility and aging and population concentration in large cities. The low birth rate is a national phenomenon. However, the severity is local(An, 2018).

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are similar in terms of the fact that their rural decline become deepened. But the U.S have had more experiences about this than South Korea.

Cause of depopulation

Changes in population composition are determined by fertility rate, mortality (life expectancy), population migration (immigration, population influx, interregional migration), and now the declining fertility rate and low birth rate are the key factors controlling the changes in population composition. In other words, the decline in population growth due to the declining fertility rate and the aging of the population are spreading globally. The U.S and the South Korea also have this causes of their specific situations.

Consequences of depopulation

The decline in population has various consequences in terms of multiple angles. From a social structural perspective, it can result in low labor productivity, shrinking the domestic market, increasing social security expenditure and social conflict, deepening educational inequality, reducing defense resources, and disappearing from the province.

With regard to the workforce, there is a shortage of workforce due to a decrease in the workable population, and a decrease in productivity due to an aging workforce. The contraction of the domestic market can lead to a weakening of national competitiveness and a recession due to contraction in consumption and investment. In addition, conflicts between generations may intensify due to the rapid increase in the burden of young people from national salt and health insurance. Intensifying educational inequality intensifies inequality in access to educational services due to a decrease in the number of schools, and worsens regional education.

In addition, a decrease in the number of young people increases the pressure to reduce defense manpower and reduce defense costs. Local extinction refers to the risk that local governments will be extinguished due to a decrease in population.

Present policies and public services to reverse depopulation:

The U.S. and Korean Case

Overall, the U.S. and South Korea are very similar in terms of things that they tried proper response to their demographic problem. In the U.S, most of policies related to birthrate have accepted in terms of individual and personal area. Instead the development policies have developed. In Korea, the government tried to make policies directly to the birth rate. At the same time, South Korea tried to develop the local policies.

Korea Needs Multiple Solutions to Address its Population Decline Problem

The issue of population decline in South Korea is multifaceted. Thus, multiple solutions are needed:

Welfare System Reforms:

Designs of the policy project

Rural social service

City policy

Control tower

Expansion-oriented development

Monolithic centralized response :

Collaboration with Private sector

What kind of public service is needed?

Changes in the demographic structure bring new administrative demand.

Childbirth and care support:

Labor market improvement:

Human services:

Minimum services:

Demand for Population Change by Age Group

The policy packages suitable for each group of each life cycle were organized and suggested. It is expected that the effectiveness of the childbirth policy will be improved when detailed policy tasks for each area are linked and promoted in a package.

Recommendation for Korea

From the previous section, we have developed a more systematic package by bundling it into short-term and long-term ones.

The question is how to respond to changes in conditions, to secure the quality of life of the people, and to prevent further population decline and urban infiltration. Thus, one of the key roles the government should play in the era of declining population is to design policies and systems to strategically utilize the declining population in a systematic manner. Below I highlight key policies areas that the government could address in the short- and long-term:
Short-term Policy Recommendations

Directions :

The population should be dispersed through the development of local areas and the activation of shrinking cities. Urban policy in the era of declining population should focus on urban regeneration and community revitalization, not on new developmen t(David, 2017)

Paradigm shift

When the policy of expanding male parental leave and flexible work system are actively introduced and the policy of supporting the actual male child rearing in the home is activated, the culture of nurturing with the couple can be created.

Federal support is also needed

Importance of local government roles

Urban services need to be readjusted.

Urban Planning and Improvement in the Age of the decrease in population

Restructuring the urban functions:

Reorganization of physical facilities

Change the location of investment

Sharing economy

Long-term Policy Recommendations

Directions :
In the long term, raising the fertility rate is essential, and in the mid-term, it is necessary to resolve the population problem and the local problem. In other words, from a long-term point of view, childbirth should approach other issues

Simplified Subsides
There are too many kinds of support for childbirth including subsidies. It should be simplified. The biggest problem in welfare is that there are many kinds of money, and the amount is not big. People do not know what to pay for, what someone can receive, what someone am receiving. When someone reach 65, someone do not know what someone can get, and someone do not know exactly what someone can get if she have a baby. There is also a lot of waste of administrative power because public officials do not know well.

Building a close care and welfare network
It is necessary to establish a compact care and welfare network that can be easily understood and accessed by consumers. It is necessary to establish a portal site so that citizens can easily identify and apply for various maternity incentive policies, care support policies, and welfare policies implemented by the government and local governments. For this, blind spots are analyzed through big data analysis. It should be analyzed to make sure it is not there and make it easy to identify and apply through the portal site. It is pointed out that various policies are difficult to understand and approach from the citizen's point of view.

Change the overall system of the society
If Korea has maintained an expansion-oriented social system in the meantime, it is necessary to take a solid social system in the future. If an expansion-oriented policy was implemented in the city planning, housing, and housing of the economic industry, it is now necessary to change the overall system of the society in the direction of maintaining the status quo or aiming for the inside.

Cooperative governance :
It is to strengthen the cooperation system of private, regional and government (governance). To this end, it strengthens the functions of the committee control tower by establishing and solidifying councils between corporations, civil society, regions, and central governments, and by evaluating and managing the low-birth and aged society policy budgets managed by departments.

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